Press conference: Beijing Olympics weather services

The Yomiuri Shimbun

This is a follow up of the artificial rain technology. First of all, could you elaborate a little what type of technology you will be using, and what type of material will be launched into the cloud? And how soon it will have an effect usually? When you say, you have contingency plans, could you tell us under what circumstances you would decide to use the system? Thank you.

Zhang Qiang

Dispersal of clouds and dispersal of rain are only on the stage of experimentation. We will have to distinguish cold or warm clouds and apply different techniques. When we have inappropriate weather conditions, we will apply some techniques. As for contingency plans, we will see if certain weather conditions will affect Beijing, then we can see if we need to apply such techniques.

French reporter

You were saying that there is a probability of strong rain in the days just before the Opening Ceremony or the Closing Ceremony but that there is no rain forecast for the evening ceremony. How can you be sure since you are expecting a lot or rains before and after? Secondly, I would like to ask about wind and wave forecast in Qingdao and other venues?

Wang Jianjie

I said that I will exclude continuous heavy rain before and on the day of the opening ceremony. According to the analysis, there is no evidence that there will be continuous heavy rains before the ceremony. However, we don't exclude that on August 8, there might be periodic rain. I don't know weather I made myself clear, because from your question, it was really contrary to what I said before.

AP

I hate to be labored the fact, could you give us the weather forecast for the next 4-5 days leading to the 8th and can you say what is the percentage chance for rain on the evening of rain? 20% or 50% or some percentage?

Guo Hu

From now to the next few days, Beijing will have clear sky but also some rain. As for the 8th of August, it's going to be cloudy with some periodic thunderstorms. However more detail forecast will be given on the 6th of August and we will also report the percentage to the authorities.

Beijing Daily

You just said that there might be rain on the evening of August 8, but that will not affect the fireworks. However, spectators might be disappointed. You said also that for the 2nd half of August, there might be rain and high temperature and might have sauna days which is terrible. If there is high temperature that will also affect the athletes, especially for the open air sport. Would you use artificial means to change the weather to make it all comfortable for us all and what is the probability of your using this techniques?

Wang Jianjie

Let me answer first, then I think my colleague will make some addition. Whether we will be disappointed, that is so subjected. I think some of our friends will like it with the rain because it will refresh us and will reduce the temperature. For the second question, you were saying that the temperature during the Games this August. Historically speaking, according to the analysis over 30 years, the average temperature will not going to be so high and will be about 24.9 degrees. According to the analysis, the probability of it going up to 35 degrees is not very likely. The risk is not very high. Now according to the forecast, the average temperature will be slightly higher than the normal average but will not go up very high. Even if the temperature reaches 35 degrees, we will also know that the peak temperature during the day will be very short and not all events will occur at the time of the peak temperature during the day.

SBS, Australia

We have 2 beautiful days in Beijing in the last few days. Is it the result of the pollution measures that were taken or it is just simply due to changing weather?

Wang Yubin

The environmental administration has already given you an answer. We also give you such forecast 2 days ahead, whether the weather has something to do with the measures, the results are there for us to see.

Guo Hu

Good weather that we have now has a great deal to do with the natural conditions. Of course whether it can be maintained or not, it has something to do with our pollution control measures.

Canadian reporter

I understand that there is a connection between the weather in Beijing and the smog and pollution in the air of the city, can you give me an idea what the weather conditions in August will or they can do to cleanse air during the Games? Or there might be a chance it will be humid and smoggy for the Games.

Guo Hu

Over the past 2 days, the weather has been good. The air quality has been above level 1. Of course we should contribute them to the human efforts as well as the mother nature. All the departments have been doing their parts. Secondly, the weather condition has something to do with air quality. For example, the wind speed above 2-3 levels and another thing is rainfall, they are good for pollution control. And over the past two days, we have convective weather, which is good to clean the air. Therefore, for the past 2 days, if you look at the symptoms of that, it is highly likely that high temperature will be possible. However, the high temperature won't last long. Most likely, during the day, in the noon, it will only last for 2-3 hours. From 8 to 24 during the Games, the weather is progressing summer to autumn. So the weather is indeed very suitable for sporting events.

Wen Wei Pao

Can I ask a follow up question? You said on the 8th of August, there might be rains, can you tell us if it will happen in the morning or afternoon. Or if it happens in the evening, if so, will it affect the Opening Ceremony? In addition, can you tell us about contingency plans? Is it all about well-advanced weather forecast or does it include other things as well?

Wang Jianjie

We still have 5 days to wait until August 8. With the development of science and tehcnolgoy, at this moment for us to come up with specific forecast, it's simply impossible. Faced with different weather conditions, we probably have difficulties in terms of forecasting. For periodical rains, it's rather difficult to come out with the forecast. I will give you one example. There are many diseases. There is symptoms, which can be demonstrated earlier, but others are simply sudden diseases and therefore you can not foresee those diseases. What I am trying to say is that the periodical rains are periodical in nature. Therefore, We can't possibly give you a forecast in advance but impossible for us to forecast in advance when exactly it will be on August 8.

AFP

I remember earlier this year, Liu Jingmin said there was a 10% chance of rains on August 8 during the Opening Ceremony. Do you have statistics about the chance of rain are during the Opening Ceremony?

Wang Yubin

To go to the probability of rain of the Opening Ceremony, it is about 41%. Over the past 10 days, we have rain for 2 days. So, the probability of rainfall over the past ten days was 20%. When we are talking about the chance of rains, we refer to the days of rain during the past ten days. The longer period of rainful is, the more influence it will have in the future. I want to tell you one thing. The possibilities will not decide or affect the forecast for the future.

Ta Kung Pao

For the accuracy of the weather forecast on July 24 and 25, the forecast said the weather should be clear. How come the weather turn out to be cloudy day? Therefore, for August 8, if the forecast turns out to be wrong, would that affect the conduct of the Opening Ceremony?

Guo Hu

Weather forecast are not live forecast but they are forecast of weather. Therefore, not only in China, but all over the world, the weather forecast can not be 100% accurate. The question you asked relates to the ability of forecast. In our presentation, you have learned on the part of CMA (China Metrological Administration). We are putting the resources from all parts of the country in terms providing weather servicies. We have the most advanced short-time forecast system. It is fair to say, at the meteorlogical department, as for our preparation for the Olympics, we are indeed the best in the world.

Wang Hui

I would like to answer your question too. I am not a meterological expert myself. We have done some rehearsal for the Opening Ceremony. During on rehearsal, we encountered periodical rain but it went on smoothly. It was a test for us, and because of that, we have renewed and strengthened confidence in producing the successful Opening Ceremony.

I want to thank you all for coming. Tomorrow, at the same time at 11 a.m., the press briefing will be on the happy reunion of the Olympic family members in Beijng. You are all invited to come. Thank you all.